The Effect of Education on Individual Earnings: A Statistical Analysis Using Quantile Regression and the Mincerian Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35778/jazu.i56.a682الكلمات المفتاحية:
التعليم، الدخل، الانحدار الكمي، نموذج مينسر، عدم المساواة في الأجور، المملكة العربية السعودية.الملخص
تتناول هذه الدراسة أثر التعليم على الدخل الفردي في المملكة العربية السعودية باستخدام أسلوب الانحدار الكمي ودالة مينسر للأجور. وعلى خلاف أسلوب الانحدار بالمربعات الصغرى الاعتيادية (OLS)، يتيح الانحدار الكمي فهماً أكثر دقة لكيفية تأثير التعليم في الأجور عبر مختلف مستويات توزيع الدخل. ويعتمد التحليل على بيانات مسحية شملت 804 مفردات من مناطق مختلفة في المملكة العربية السعودية، مع الأخذ في الاعتبار مجموعة من العوامل الرئيسة مثل الجنس، والحالة الاجتماعية، والخبرة العملية، وقطاع العمل. وتشير النتائج إلى أن للتعليم أثراً إيجابياً ذا دلالة إحصائية على الدخل، إلا أن حجم هذا الأثر يختلف باختلاف مستويات الدخل. ففي حين يحقق التعليم العالي عوائد ملموسة لدى أصحاب الدخول المنخفضة والمتوسطة، تتناقص هذه العوائد عند أعلى الكميات (Quantiles) من توزيع الدخل، مما يدل على أن تخصصات العلوم الصحية والهندسة وعلوم الحاسب وتقنية المعلومات، إلى جانب الخبرة العملية، تؤدي دوراً أكثر بروزاً في تحديد الأجور عند المستويات العليا من الدخل. كما تكشف النتائج عن وجود فجوات واضحة بين الجنسين، حيث يتقاضى الرجال أجوراً أعلى من النساء، ولا سيما عند مستويات الأجور المرتفعة، الأمر الذي يعزز المزايا المهنية طويلة الأجل للرجال. وتُظهر الدراسة أيضاً أن الحالة الاجتماعية تُعد متغيراً مهماً في تفسير الدخل، خاصةً لدى أصحاب الدخول المرتفعة، في حين يوفر العمل في القطاع العام قدراً أكبر من الاستقرار في الأجور عبر مختلف الكميات. كما تدعم نتائج نموذج مينسر هذه الاستنتاجات، حيث تؤكد أن كلاً من التعليم والخبرة العملية يسهمان بصورة معنوية في تحديد الدخل، غير أن تناقص العائد على الخبرة في المراحل المتقدمة من المسار الوظيفي يبرز أهمية التطوير المستمر للمهارات. وتخلص الدراسة إلى أن لهذه النتائج دلالات مهمة لصياغة سياسات التعليم، واستراتيجيات سوق العمل، وتخطيط القوى العاملة في المملكة العربية السعودية.
التنزيلات
المراجع
Holmlund, Helena, and Martin Nybom. Education and social mobility. No. 2023: 18. Working Paper, 2023. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296976
Volante, L., Fazio, X., & Ritzen, J. (2017). The OECD and educational policy reform: International surveys, governance, and policy evidence. Canadian Journal of Educational Administration and Policy, (184).
Robinson, C., & Pope, R. (2023). Minoritized individuals and knowledge-economy.
International Encyclopedia of Education (Fourth Edition), Pages 244-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818630-5.08039-8
Bakker, V., & Van Vliet, O. (2022). Social investment, employment and policy and institutional complementarities: A comparative analysis across 26 OECD countries. Journal of Social Policy, 51(4), 728-750. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279421000386
Pascoe, M. C., Hetrick, S. E., & Parker, A. G. (2020). The impact of stress on students in secondary school and higher education. International journal of adolescence and youth, 25(1), 104-112. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673843.2019.1596823
Nguyen, C. (2018). Demographic factors, family background and prior self-employment on entrepreneurial intention-Vietnamese business students are different: why? Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, 8(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40497-018-0097-3
Rahman, M. M., & Akhter, B. (2021). The impact of investment in human capital on bank performance: evidence from Bangladesh. Future Business Journal, 7, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-021-00105-5
Brennan, J., Durazzi, N., & Sene, T. (2013). Things we know and don't know about the Wider Benefits of Higher Education: A review of the recent literature. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1200.0806
Vandala, N. G. (2019). The transformative effect of correctional education: A global perspective. Cogent Social Sciences, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2019.1677122
Almutairi, N. T. (2024). Does investment in human capital via education stimulate economic growth in an oil-rich country? A case study of Saudi Arabia. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 2933-2955. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01265-1
Alsulami, H. (2018). The effect of education and experience on wages: The case study of Saudi Arabia. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 8(1), 129-142. DOI: 10.4236/ajibm.2018.81008
Sfar, K. (2024). The role of education in economic development in Saudi Arabia. Educational Administration: Theory and Practice, 30(7), 64-71. https://doi.org/10.53555/kuey.v30i7.6436
Quamar, M. M. (2020). Education system in Saudi Arabia: Of change and reforms. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9173-0
Barry, A. (2021). Equal Opportunity in Education and Employment in Saudi Arabia: Heading in the Right Direction but Challenges Remain. Educational Planning, 28(1), 7-21.
Essa, S., & Harvey, B. (2022). Education for sustainable development in Saudi Arabia: A critical discourse analysis of media and government policy documents. Interdisciplinary Journal of Environmental and Science Education, 18(2), e2266. https://doi.org/10.21601/ijese/11519
Zheng, X., Wu, A., & Wei, X. (2023). The social support returns to college education in China: Evidence from online medical crowdfunding. China Economic Review, 79, 101978. doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101978
Kim, T. (2021). Estimating pecuniary and non-pecuniary returns to college education for academically marginal students: Evidence from the college enrollment quota policy in South Korea. Economics of Education Review, 83, 102142. 10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102142
Mamun, S. A. K., Taylor, B. R., Nghiem, S., Rahman, M. M., & Khanam, R. (2021). The private returns to education in rural Bangladesh. International Journal of Educational Development, 84, 102424. 10.1016/j.ijedudev.2021.102424
Somani, R. (2021). The returns to higher education and public employment. World Development, 144, 105471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105471
McGuinness, S., Kelly, E., Pham, T. T. P., Ha, T. T. T., & Whelan, A. (2021). Returns to education in Vietnam: A changing landscape. World Development, 138, 105205. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105205
Li, H., Liu, Q., Su, Y., & Ederer, P. (2023). Policy initiatives, self-sorting, and labor market effects of tertiary education for adult workers. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 209, 205-221. DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.03.003
Psacharopoulos, G., & Patrinos, H. A. (2018). Returns to Investment in Education: A Decennial Review of the Global Literature. https://doi.org/10.1080/09645292.2018.1484426
Mincer, J. A. (1974). Education and earnings. In Education, experience, and earnings. NBER. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c1762.pdf
Himaz, R., & Aturupane, H. (2016). Returns to education in Sri Lanka: a pseudo-panel approach. Education Economics, 24(3), 300-311. DOI: 10.1080/09645292.2015.1005575
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1992). Does school quality matter? Returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the United States. Journal of political Economy, 100(1), 1-40. https://doi.org/10.1086/261805
Hamdan, A., Sarea, A., Khamis, R., & Anasweh, M. (2020). A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development: empirical evidence. Heliyon, 6(6). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04046
Patrinos, H. A. (2024). Estimating the return to schooling using the Mincer equation. IZA World of Labor. doi: 10.15185/izawol.278.v2
Lochner, L., & Moretti, E. (2004). The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports. American economic review, 94(1), 155-189. DOI: 10.1257/000282804322970751
Rauch, J. E. (1993). Productivity gains from geographic concentration of human capital: evidence from the cities. Journal of urban economics, 34(3), 380-400. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1993.1042
Salma S., (2025). Percentage change in number of internet users in Saudi Arabia from January 2015 to January 2024. Available at: https://www.statista.com/markets/424/topic/537/demographics-use/
Desjardins, R., Schuller, T., Feinstein, L., Sabates, R., & Campbell, D. (2006). Measuring the Effects of Education on Health and Civic Engagement: Proceedings from the Copenhagen Symposium. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4179-2791
Gulf Research Center. Saudi Arabia: Workers employed in the government sector, by country of citizenship (2022). Available at: Gulf Migration Database.
Cheng, S., Tamborini, C. R., Kim, C., & Sakamoto, A. (2019). Educational variations in cohort trends in the black-white earnings gap among men: Evidence from administrative earnings data. Demography, 56(6), 2253-2277.
Horowitz, J. (2018). Relative education and the advantage of a college degree. American Sociological Review, 83(4), 771-801. DOI: 10.1177/0003122418785371
Shaimardanova, N. (2022). Impact of Qualification and Working Conditions on Civil Servant Pay Levels in Russia. Network of Institutes and Schools of Public Administration in Central and Eastern Europe. The NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, 15(1), 201-221. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/nispa-2022-0009
Fleischhauer, K. J. (2007). A review of human capital theory: Microeconomics. University of St. Gallen, Department of Economics Discussion Paper, (2007-01).
Ramessur, T. S., & Jugessur, N. (2024). An Assessment of the Relevance of the Mincerian Equation: The Case of Mauritius. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 9, 100810. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssaho.2024.100810
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913643
Borgen, N. T. (2016). Fixed effects in unconditional quantile regression. The Stata Journal, 16(2), 403-415. http://www.stata-journal.com/software/sj16-2/st0438/
Chen, F., & Chalhoub-Deville, M. (2014). Principles of quantile regression and an application. Language Testing, 31(1), 63-87. https://doi.org/10.1177/0265532213493623
Fitzenberger, B., & Wilke, R. A. (2015). Quantile regression methods. Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences: An Interdisciplinary, Searchable, and Linkable Resource, 1-18.https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118900772.etrds0269
Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile regression (Vol. 38). Cambridge university press.
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754098
Koenker, R., & Machado, J. A. (1999). Goodness of fit and related inference processes for quantile regression. Journal of the american statistical association, 94(448), 1296-1310. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669943
Staffa, S. J., Kohane, D. S., & Zurakowski, D. (2019). Quantile regression and its applications: a primer for anesthesiologists. Anesthesia & Analgesia, 128(4), 820-830. DOI: 10.1213/ANE.0000000000004017
Fournier, J. M., & Koske, I. (2012). Less income inequality and more growth–Are they compatible? Part 7. The drivers of labour earnings inequality–An analysis based on conditional and unconditional quantile regressions. https://doi.org/10.1787/5k9h28s354hg-en
Joseph, C., Leyaro, V., & Ndanshau, M. (2023). Education and Labour Earnings Inequality in Tanzania: Evidence from Quantile Regression Analysis. Tanzanian Economic Review, 13(2), 28-41. DOI: 10.56279/ter. v13i2.137

